Why Chrome OS is the Future of Netbooks

Matt Nolker, Thursday, July 23, 2009 @ 1:13 pm

Google recently announced a new netbook operating system to great fanfare: Chrome OS. It's named after Google's browser for a very good reason - all applications run within the browser framework, rather than being downloaded, installed and run atop the user's desktop operating system. Much of the subsequent analysis has revolved around the battle of the titans that is expected to occur now that Google has moved directly onto Microsoft's turf.

Here's my take: Google's approach is gonna win.

Why? Developers, developers, developers, developers. And installers, installers, installers, installers. Developers because people don't buy computers to run operating systems - they buy them to run applications. And developers write those apps. Installers because having a seamless installation experience doubles or triples a software developer's customer base. And nothing is more seamless than clicking on a link.

At least, that's Pathfinder's experience. We've build hundreds of software applications in the past 10 years. Most web-based. But some were native desktop apps that users would download and install locally. And for a huge portion of the population, the everyday process of downloading and installing desktop applications is completely broken. Here are some numbers, based on our experience:

• 50% to 75% of users who visit a software download web page abandon the page without starting the download.
• Roughly 30%-60% of users who download the application never install it.

These two numbers are why companies pay Dell and HP to pre-install crapware on every PC they sell. It's why Google pays to have the Google toolbar piggyback on the installations of Adobe Reader. It's why AOL carpet-bombed North America with installer CDs in the 90s. And it's why the Chrome OS - or something like the Chrome OS - is the future for netbooks. Sure, Windows XP has a head start of 15 million or so netbook installations. But if you believe the numbers above, a cloud-based, browser-based OS like Chrome only needs 25% of that number to be a more valuable platform for software vendors. That's a pretty powerful advantage for a company looking to break Microsoft's stranglehold on some part of the netbook operating system market.

Related Services: Custom Software Development, User Experience Design

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4. Data Driven Design and the Culture at Google
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1. [...] opinion Share and [...]

   Pingback by Chrome OS is the Future of Netbooks « Chrome OS News, Friday, July 24, 2009 @ 8:53 am

2. 

   Maybe. I am doubtful, and here’s why. Even 25% is a wildly optimistic number. After years of hearing “This is the year the Linux desktop takes off!” total desktop penetration remains anemic — that’s even with a really great desktop OS (Ubuntu) AND Dell offering an easy integration to Ubuntu.

   Maybe a small fraction of netbook owners will opt for Google OS, but 25%? No way. Not without a massive (and expensive) campaign from Google to educate people about Chrome and not without paying Dell and others to preload their OS.

   Even if that happens, you’re still dealing with an almost microscopically small piece of Microsoft’s business, and probably the least important piece at that. Now, you want to pick a fight with MS over the corporate desktop space, or the much larger home desktop space? Good luck.

   And even if Google wins a significant portion of the market, what have they truly won? The OS is going to be open source, and Google will have none of the advantages MS does in the Windows space. OS, Office — that’s Microsoft’s home turf. MS can build a browser compliant version of MS Office that is good enough (and it is), and then what? What is the incentive to switch for the average user? What is the incentive to switch for the corporate CIO or CTO?

   My prediction is this: Chrome OS will get a lot of love from developers, and may even score small successes in niche markets (I agree that netbooks is the most likely). But without a massive, almost bet-the-company sized investment from Google, there’s no way it goes beyond that. And even in these niche markets, I am doubtful you’ll get to anything like 25%. Going to be fun to watch, though, no doubt.

   Comment by Aron Pilhofer, Saturday, July 25, 2009 @ 7:42 am

3. 

   Good points Aron. I certainly don’t think that Microsoft’s OS monopoly is in serious danger on the traditional PC. XP or Windows 7 brings a whole host of capabilities, like DirectX, a huge library of device drivers, etc. However, netbooks don’t have the same need for these capabilities as a typical workhorse desktop or laptop PC. And the Windows OS architecture has some drawbacks as well – software installation, as I pointed out, is either difficult or at least very inhibiting for many users. I think Chrome has more room to succeed than many expect in spaces like the netbook. That said, the only way Chrome make significant inroads in the overall OS marketshare is if netbook form factor begins to eclipse that of traditional PCs. I don’t think that’s out of the question, but it will be quite some time before it occurs (if at all).

   Comment by Matt Nolker, Monday, August 3, 2009 @ 10:31 am

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