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Browser Wars : Part IV a new hope?

I've been looking around for some data on the life/death cycle of browsers to append to my earlier post. In my early days, there was much drama about the rise and fall of browsers, and the great capabilities these new browsers would bring to the user experience. And when I say drama, I mean it was deadly dull, waiting years for certain 'problem' browsers to die out, or for less savvy computer users to get a new computer and finally update that clunker and get a 'real' browser. This seemed always to be whatever the latest, greatest beta version by the established titan, or sometimes the crafty underdog. When HTML 5.0 gets integrated into a browser, it will be years for that browser to be adopted, and further years for site developers to take advantage of whatever innovations it offers safely. The days of code bifurcation and browser sniffing are not dead by any means, but they are as usual being 'phased out'. If you were writing the script for the hollywood version of "Browser Wars" here's a possible plot outline (If Michael Bey is involved please give me a cut)
- 1996 Exposition - the masses seem to discover the Internet and Netscape makes it all possible thanks to Netscape 3.0. The world rejoices and refuses to dump this browser for at least 10 years (it may still be in use today ?!)
- 1997 Rising action - Internet Explorer 4 introduces a whole new world, special effects, DHTML, proprietary image filters and other goodies that take the world by storm, also, they explicitly link their browser with the operating system, so you can't remove it, and its hell to install a different one (bye bye Netscape). This also starts the nasty reality that windows can only have one instance of IE at a time, so developers rarely have the same browser version as their users, bringing up the popular 'it works on my machine' excuse.
- 2000 - IE 5 for the mac comes out and makes mac users feel cool, superior, and since it diverges from the inexplicable release that was IE 5.0 (for xp?) it becomes the browser of the hip. Cool innovations include somehow integrating ebay bidding someplace.
- 2001 - IE 5.5 for windows/mac and the last gasp of Netscape Navigator (7?) all come out in one big dump. Browsers seem to have become massive piles of auxiliary interfaces (email, auctions, unknown amounts of crap). I suppose writing a browser means you should do something with all those eyeballs to make money? The box model is broken, web standards seem shaky. The future doesn't look too bright, users despair.
- 2003 Climax!- IE 6 comes out to wipe everyone off the map, all those custom hacks for IE have paid off as it destroys all other browsers (mac users need not apply) and the dynasty is secure. It has enough to make web 2.0 happen, but not enough to appease the web standard crowd coming into being. People think about using div's for layout! Since old windows machines all succumb to whatever that horrible virus was, people upgrade their computers and IE 6 gets you about 80% of browser traffic, so microsoft goes off do do something else for about 5 years.
- 2004 The rebels attack! Mac Safari and OS X comes in to challenge the dominant browser, and on a good day, when the wind is right they can get about 1% of browser versions.
- 2005 Denoument - The flaws in the reactor are finally uncovered and the plans to the rebel base are brought to Mozilla which takes on the Windows empire with Firefox. Even average users tired of endless security attacks flee to embrace the upstart. On a good day, mozilla gets a 10% share of the browsing pie. WIndows tries to release service pack 2 to win back their imprisoned users, tempers flare!
- 2006 Ending: The empire strikes back with IE 7, a fully realized, standards compliant docile friendly beast that plays with others and is generally cute and cuddly. However, it breaks all the hacked up IE 6 sp2-only sites and thus people don't accept the peaceful, easygoing IE, and reinstall the evil 6 version, making it the browser we will have to live with for the next 10 years or so.
Or will we?
Topics: User Experience
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